‘Overly dry weather’ to prompt hefty drop in world grains harvest – IGC
“Overly dry weather” has left the world on track for its steepest drop in grains output in at least a decade, the International Grains Council said, flagging “particular concerns” over supplies of high-quality wheat.
The intergovernmental group cut by 11m tonnes to 2.04bn tonnes its forecast for world grains production in 2017-18, downgrading its harvest estimate for a third successive month.
The revision reflected setbacks from dryness in many major producing areas, concerns over which sent the IGC’s grain and oilseed price index up 5% in July to a one-year high.
“Because of overly dry weather, including in North America, the European Union and Australia, the outlooks for global maize (corn), wheat and barley harvests are revised lower,” the council said.
The downgrade took to 88m tonnes, or 4.1%, the drop in world grains production expected in 2017-18 – the largest decline in at least a decade, beating a 3.0% drop in 2012-13.
“Both harvested areas and average yields [are] expected to be lower year on year.”
This report indicates that, although the world’s current carryover of stored grains is at a high level, it is being eroded and future indicators point to disturbed annual weather patterns that, energised by rising global temperatures, will put the wrong amounts of rain in the wrong place at the wrong time.
This is the second blog in a row on the Peakhill Associates website that shows the work currently being done to move biomass feedstocks for anaerobic digestion away from food crops must be the correct decision.